Story by Jenene Grover
Featured Photo by Kayla Walker
The 2024 presidential primary season began with the Iowa caucuses on Jan. 15, with its voters declaring former President Donald Trump the winner of 20 Republican delegates.
Trump was expected to perform well in Iowa. His staggering 30-point lead was a crushing blow to Governor Ron DeSantis’ and Nikki Haley’s campaigns heading into New Hampshire on Jan. 23.
“On one hand, the results could empower the Trump base, and they could turn out in even higher numbers…This could be used as a momentum builder.” said Katrina Aguilar, president of MTSU Young College Democrats. “On the other hand, this could easily be pushed back by other people who don’t support Trump.”
DeSantis came in second place, with Haley following behind by 2%. DeSantis’ success was predicted — he has focused his campaign efforts on Iowa — but third place came as a shock to Haley’s campaign.
Just a week before, Chris Christie suspended his bid for the Republican nomination. It was suspected that Christie supporters would turn to support Haley, though her campaign focus was on the New Hampshire and South Carolina primaries.
Even with their campaigns focusing on New Hampshire, Trump still polls around 50% with New Hampshire Republicans.
“I think that Trump is on track to being the Republican nominee, probably to win the primary…I think what you found in the caucus is exactly what you’re going to find from the other primaries,” said Sekou Franklin, a political science professor at MTSU.
Iowa is one of the five states that hold caucuses rather than a primary. The Iowa caucuses mark the beginning of the new Presidential election cycle, typically held in January or February.
A caucus is a large political meeting in which people cast their votes in a group of people after hearing speeches from campaign representatives.
“It could be a method in which voters gather in a room and go to the areas that are preferable for the candidates…I think in the more recent Republican primaries, there were some caucuses that allowed you to vote by putting names in a bag,” said Franklin.
Historically, the Iowa caucuses do not necessarily predict the winner of the Republican nomination. However, it does help predict how candidates will perform throughout the primary season.
“The winner of Iowa tends to not be the Republican nominee. Although, this is Donald Trump. I think in Tennessee, I don’t expect a different result than Donald Trump being the winner of our primary election,” said Theo Baker, vice president of MTSU Young College Democrats.
Over 1,600 precincts hold a caucus where registered voters must physically go to a building and stay there for typically around two hours. Because of this, voter turnout is generally lower at caucuses than at primaries.
However, this year showed one of the lowest voter turnouts in Iowa since 2000, with only 15% of registered Iowan Republicans casting their votes.
“You can’t make a judgment about any other race because the caucuses themselves are designed to have a lower turnout. The other part of it is to have non-competitive races and have frontrunner candidates,” said Franklin.
In heavily, Republican states like Tennessee, there is predicted to be less voter turnout, especially with the expectation that Trump will win the nomination.
“The other variable that impacts turnout is, ‘Is it a competitive election?’ In 2024, although there are multiple candidates in the race, they’re not going to win. Trump is the frontrunner candidate,” predicted Franklin.
In these races, looking at the other candidates is important to determine future running mates. Throughout the Republican debates, only Christie was willing to be vocally anti-Trump.
After his over 10-point loss, Vivek Ramaswamy dropped out of the race and endorsed Trump.
“I do think that some of the candidates that are out there are vying to be vice presidential candidates. I think that’s why you’ll find some of the candidates that are less willing to be critical of Trump,” said Franklin.
In Iowa, the race was called around 30 minutes into voting, declaring Trump the winner and angering many in the GOP. Second and third places were not finalized until three hours later.
“I’m a big fan of letting the vote finalize itself by 8 o’clock and then calling the race. For Iowa, who comes in second and third matters a great deal because it allows that person or that candidate to determine if they’re going to have momentum going into New Hampshire and South Carolina,” said Franklin.
The next primary in the season is Jan. 23, though most states, including Tennessee, do not participate until Super Tuesday on March 5.
Alyssa Williams is the News Editor for MTSU Sidelines.
To contact News Editor Alyssa Williams and Assistant News Editor Zoe Naylor, email [email protected].
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